Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Do you approve of the opposition tactics?

Levon Ter-Petrosian once said that the opposition plays chess, and the regime reacts with boxing. After all the abuse by the regime, the opposition continues to play chess.

Do you think it's time to bring an AK-47 out, instead of a chess board, against that boxer and see how they fare?

28 comments:

spm said...

Nazarian, don't go crazy....

Anonymous said...

voch mi ak-47. chnayac evraxorhurdi ardzaganqin joxovrdavarutyun@ hayastanum shat avelin e qan adrbejanum kam vrastanum. u dra apacuycn en 9 orya bacardzak xaxax hanrahavaqner@. hima uzum eq dzerq berac@ mi orum vari taq? Levoni liberal hayacqner@ chen texavorvum et scenari mej. indz amen , inchpes nayev karcum em Levonin u hay voxj joxovrdin zenqi amen gnov (zenqi ujov) ishxanapoxutyun petq chi.

p.s.
mi guce es sxalvum em.

Anonymous said...

Արա, էդ АК-47-ը լենքով ոռդ կկոխենք, այ թուրքի շակալ։

Anonymous said...

et vor asum es kkoxenq (aysinqn duq) um nkati unes? duq ov eq?

Anonymous said...

That the opposition plays chess is a mirage. Both camps even don;t play box. In all these sports there is an element of step back or swerve.

LTP was/is playing an hazardous game, lets say horse race. win or nothing.
RK/SS play the same game.

Its strange that LTP knows the outcome of zero sum game in NKR conflict and ready to compromise while the same rules is hardly applying to domestic politics. He wants RK/SS to compromise first and even without negotiations.

Anonymous said...

ete inchvor mek@ mtacuma vor ak-47 -ov harc lucel@ chisht chanaparha hastat sxalvuma. bayc ete hanrapetakani shayken hamozvaca vor dran erbeq chi hasni. u erevanum iranc shaykic durs duxov txerq chkan 100%-ov en sxalvum. hayer dzez hamest paheq eli mi kich. pox@ pox, jip@ jip bayc mardu inqnasirutyn@ mi kpeq. cheq marselu.

"menq qich enq sakayn mez hay en asum", mi moraceq. u irar turq mi aseq, amota.

Anonymous said...

It's true that people are furious, When their hope of peaceful and democratic struggle collapses, you never know what will happen. Of course it's still early to speak about such things, but there really exist such emotions in people even if we try to conceal them. Nazarian is being just a little straigttforward and impatient remarking about it now.

Anonymous said...

When there is no logic, curses are under way. The cursing anonymous is the face of today's authorities.

parisan said...

This is a good question. The answer is an obvious "no", because the outcome of a bloody revolution could be worse than no revolution at all, and Armenia is not in a position to take any risk. Besides, how do you disarm the weapon masters after the work is done? And exactly who do you shoot at?

Every day I see the policemen at the Opera. A lot of them look like they would rather be elsewhere (but what can they do?), but there are the others, the sorry bunch who seem to enjoy their work -- among them are the older, nastier looking servants of the gang in power. "What's to do with those?" I ask myself when I see them.

Your question is valid, because there is a feeling that we could wake up one morning to hear that there was a putsch. Perhaps somebody will decide they ought to capitalize on the anger that is growing in Armenia?

Right now, the policemen and the generals are protecting the contested leadership, but who will protect the leadership from the "baton men"?

Anger will keep on growing; paranoia too -- simple madness or a nervous breakdown might do better than an AK-47.

mayranoush said...

Nazarian, I don't agree with you on this occasion. Using violence against violence will result in bloodshed and chaos. Neither of which will benefit the Armenian people.

As Gandhi said ' An eye for an eye leaves everybody blind'.

Haik said...

Very controversial question. but the answer is no.
Even if Serjik and Robik get shot some times later 9 2-3 generation later) they might become the role models/ martyrs of the neo-nazis and fascis youth. they already have some support in that circles.
They should be preserved dearly they might do some good work in task such as asbestos removal or mining.

nazarian said...

No profanities, please. There is one comment that uses vulgar language in Armenian but it actually contributes to the discussion so removing it would diminish the value of the post.

BTW, I am not advocating violence (AK-47 was a symbol of violence, not the actual tool of violence).

I am trying to figure out what a less painful way of getting rid of the avazakapetutyun.

Ani said...

The strength of the opposition lies entirely with holding the high ground (although unfortunately Levon willingly ceded some of that with his 65% claim right after the election, which is coming back to bite now). And the high ground seems actually finally to be gaining a bit of traction at least in the West.

From now on, every single thing that goes wrong in Armenia is going to be firmly laid at Serzh's feet. All the price increases, the decline in tourism (wouldn't you think?), the outlandish new casinos only for the "invited guests". What about the "free autos and medicine" he promised? And his pension increase promises? He's not starting out as popular, and it's only going to go downhill from here. So some patience, please, before bringing out the guns, because they are already beginning to shoot themselves, at least in the feet.

Unless you are trying to prove Obama's point about bitter people clinging to them...

nazarian said...

Ani, I don't know what the hell Obama was thinking :(

Anyway, I hope the opposition's peaceful stance is the way to go. So far it has not yielded any significant results.

spm said...

Nazarian, in order to succeed we should admit that RK/SS do have their support base. It is certainly not 52%, but it exists. What we lack in Armenia and generally in all post-Soviet space is lawfulness. Unfortunately, LTP is to be blamed for not establishing lawful country after the demise of USSR. He should not have come back in my opinion, but when he did he should have asked forgiveness for that very sin - not obeying the laws.
Then he might have more people backing him. Vano has been credited for eliminating pet criminality on the streets, but Vano achieved that by criminal methods, not by the law. ARF is a dangerous nationalistic party that should be kept away from governing Armenia, but it must be than transparently and by the law. Robert and Serj must be punished some day, but not killed in the Parliament building, or on a dark street. They must be tried and condemned publicly according to the law.
I know this sounds as sheer utopia, but unless the opposition headed by LTP or whoever struggles for that, there is no sense of changing one gang for another.

We can keep killing each other as in october 27, but that does not resolve anything.

Armen Filadelfiatsi said...

I don't think violence is an option, because:

1. It won't work. They have tanks and plenty of cynical "people" to use them.

2. It will create yet another generation of jobless people whose only marketable skill is war. It's no coincidence that RK's and SS's background is war: they are the product of it, just like the Hispanic gangs are the product of the disbanded central American death squads, even though the US will never admit this.

3. They are going to destroy themselves. All we have to do is avoid getting in their way. Let them keep "tightening the bolts" as Pashinian says.

4. There is a host of other ways that the Opposition can put pressure on them: processions, assemblies, boycotts (my favorite), international scrutiny, the dispersal of news about the details of their criminal doings, and on and on.

Their regime is unsustainable, just like LTP said in his 3/11 interview. The road they are going down on will inevitably lead to international isolation, and that is something that Armenia can not afford, because Armenia is not Iraq or N. Korea and it does not have the internal resources to sustain such a dictatorial regime: oil, rice, cooking oil, butter, and so on.

Come on'a my house, everybody, for translations of what Pashinian and LTP are saying.

I'm glad you put this question forward, nazarian. The answer to that question depends on the theoretical approach chosen, and LTP and Pashinian are constantly talking about that, as many of you know.

I'm sticking to the plan. It is not only possible that it will work, it is inevitable. It's just a matter of time.

Armen Filadelfiatsi said...

spm, you can't blame LTP for the international political climate in 1996, the same year Yeltsin bombed parliament and killed 200+ people.

I would go so far as to admit that LTP's head got a bit hot in that period, and he got carried away. But he has admitted his mistake: he said in a speech in January, I think, "I am guilty of putting the yolk of RK and SS around your neck." And he means it.

LTP is a man who is motivated by guilt. Would you have rather had a freshman lead who has not been exposed to such trials?

LTP feels repentant for what he's done. Kocharian has made his mistake, but he's not repentant; a psychopath, he doesn't have a conscience. Any freshman, having never made the mistake, would be susceptible to making it, very susceptible.

LTP, however, has uniquely made his mistake and regretted it. He's admitted it and now wants to take responsibility for it and fix it. LTP will not make the same mistake twice.

Levon Ter-Petrossian is trustworthy.

spm said...

Armen f, I am not blaming LTP for international political climate. I am not blaming him for lack of light and heat in 1992-1994. I am not blaming him for corruption among mid-level functionaries or police. I can understand the reasons for each of these ills and impossibility to eliminate them at once.

But I do blame him for not creating independent judicial system. For oppressing and ignoring free press. For fighting criminals by criminal methods. For lack of transparency. For partisan appointments at government posts which need professional appointees. For delegating important issues to untrustworthy, shady personalities and withdrawing himself from daily political life of the republic. He, who is fond of history and French republic oversaw a robespierrian distraction of Kharabakh committee core after victorious revolution.

I supported him as a leader of the united opposition, and I understand that thanks to RK/SS gang there was no other personality who could fulfill this role during the latest elections. However I also wished he would not come back from his voluntary exile and remained in Armenian history as the first President. Anyway....

I saluted his decision and ability to extend a hand to ARF and go to their office and talk. I welcomed his deal with RH and Zharangutyun. But it was not enough. It was not enough to ask forgiveness for bringing RK to Armenia. He should have addressed 1996. He should have dealt with VM and get his support or at least neutrality. He should have surrounded himself with young and promising professionals, people who fled republic and turned successful businessmen, politicians, academics elsewhere. His come back was not credible on the shoulders of Stephan Demirchian and Aram Sargisyan. These two were stillborn politicians from the beginning.

We need a freshman. We need freshMEN and women. We need to fight for civil rights, for human rights, for lawfulness. We need to fight for free press. We have to get rid of this russo/asian mentality of wishing for a good Tzar. Every good tzar is succeeded by a bad one. We need a country of law, where the president serves people, not people serve president. When we vote for LTP, Serj or Arturik (I cant believe people vote for that pridurok) we vote for personality, for a good tzar. That always ends up bad. Unfortunately, after being the first ex-soviet republic, which had non-communist government in 1991, we should start building a democratic country from the scratch.
And I blame LTP for that.

Anonymous said...

Destructing text to understand the meaning

I don't think violence is an option, because:

1. It won't work.

/So, it is an option if it would work? And they call him Gandhi? Means shouldn't contradict the end - this is why violence is not an option/

They have tanks and plenty of cynical "people" to use them.

/I thought that tanks belong to Armenia. So the most cynical person in this case is LTP in 1996 who used tanks? And France, the USA and many other civilized states who use violence against meetings and would use tanks against revolutionists are cynical "people"?/


2. It will create yet another generation of jobless people whose only marketable skill is war.

/don't bring in Afghanistan case into Armenia. decades of war may create generations whos only skill is war. It's not the case in Armenia - if you don't plan decades of civil war - A tajik example/


It's no coincidence that RK's and SS's background is war: they are the product of it, just like the Hispanic gangs are the product of the disbanded central American death squads, even though the US will never admit this.

/wait a minute. Who was saying that the war was won during LTP period? This implies that LTP doesn't have war background and hence its eligible to erase his name from 1991-94 NKR war? And the war guys are only RK/SS. I never saw such prise for RK/SS, they are war guys, they won the war over turks to save Armenian lives.

And comparing NKR war to Hispanic gangs is disgrace/



3. They are going to destroy themselves. All we have to do is avoid getting in their way. Let them keep "tightening the bolts" as Pashinian says.

/ RK/SS are stupid and they will tighten the bolts sure. Unfortunate part is that the other side, so called opposition don't understand how to use it and don't learn lessons. They play the rules imposed by RK/SS /


4. There is a host of other ways that the Opposition can put pressure on them: processions, assemblies, boycotts (my favorite), international scrutiny, the dispersal of news about the details of their criminal doings, and on and on.

/its good to chose other ways. I like boycotting too. But LTP will never call upon his 500000 followers to boycott corruption. Indeed it is good for the nation, but zero benefit to LTP. He wants power.

And I dislike international scrutiny. It will push Armenia to become Belarus type country. Is this what you want?/


Their regime is unsustainable, just like LTP said in his 3/11 interview. The road they are going down on will inevitably lead to international isolation, and that is something that Armenia can not afford, because Armenia is not Iraq or N. Korea and it does not have the internal resources to sustain such a dictatorial regime: oil, rice, cooking oil, butter, and so on.

/good point. however again manipulative. Its not road of RK/SS. The road is imposed by Turkish-Azerbaijani policy. So Current policy is not to play Turkish-Az game. However LTP thinks differently. This is the main reason I am not with him/


I'm glad you put this question forward, nazarian. The answer to that question depends on the theoretical approach chosen, and LTP and Pashinian are constantly talking about that, as many of you know.

/right. That theory is called revolution and anarchism. Freedom movement motive was used - and later abused - also during Iranian revolution. Lets separate people from leaders. Huge difference of motives, both think that the other is only instrument. The instrument is people wanting freedom and not the vice versa! And This is from history studies/

I'm sticking to the plan. It is not only possible that it will work, it is inevitable. It's just a matter of time.


/This plan idea is the most funny. So it was planned that 10 people will be killed? There should be scenarios and not one size fits all plan. It is obvious that the plan didn't work as it was planned./

Anonymous said...

"Politics comes out from the barrel of a gun"

spm said...

finally critical but constructive analysis
+1000 anonymous

its getting late, I ll get back to you tomorrow :-)

Anonymous said...

The correct quote is---

Political Power emanates from the barrel of a gun

Mao

spm said...

Anonymous at 4:27AM. Your lengthy criticism of Armen F post, which I earlier called constructive on a second reading clearly reveals demagogy.

First of all, so common these days, as soon as anyone criticizing SS or RK the opponents turns and chastises LTP. I do not think this post has anything to do with LTP and your reference to Gandhi is out of context.

As for the background and related topics, I must say it plays really big role. Yes, The war was won during LTP period, but LTP never was a field commander, he always been a statesman. There is a big difference between W.Churchill and Alan Makhshadov. But what I am more concerned is not the war credentials of RK or SS, but their communist upbringing in Soviet Socialist Azerbaidjan under Aliev. They lived that, they learned that, they breath that air. You dont have to be Freud to understand it leaves a lasting impression on persons life. A citizen of the country is beaten up to death in presence of the president by his own bodyguards.... for greeting him improperly, or whatever crime he may have committed...... does anyone need better proof that a guy is a murderer?

So violence in this context can be viewed as self-defense. But still, I am against any violence. They rip and rob this country, they abuse national mentality and they must be punished for that by the power of law. And the time will come.

Anonymous said...

Hi spm

1st I was angry on comparing NKR war with hispanic gangs

2nd what I said is not demagogue but rather sarcastic remark on RK/SS indirectly being praised by Armen

and on seriose tones, and in continuation on what you said

3. RK/SS and LTP were not field commanders as you presented. Field commanders during NKR war were Monte, Samvel Babayan. Manvel Sargssyan, Seyran Ohanyan, Vitalik, and few others.

Moreover SS was kind of LTP representive in NKR during the war. Hope you heard about this controversial story.

4. I totally agree about the problem of Soviet relations legacy into Armenian politics. This stupid clan theory presented by LTP was easy sell to the public ears. Current system reminds Brezhnevian Soviet and has little with Mongholian clan system. And guess, it was HHSH leadership who decided to continue Soviet system instead of building strong Armenia state. Untill 98 all main codes /criminal, civil, labour, etc/ were still soviet. This is a long story and I don't tell it to defend RK and SS.
Ինչպես ասել է վաղամեռիկ հրապարակախոս Տիգրան Հայրապետյանը, ներեք Քոչարյանին, քանզի նա անմեղսունակ է և չի գիտակցում, թե ինչ է անում: Սակայն Լևոն Տեր-Պետրոսյանին ներում չի հասնում: Նա ամեն ինչ գիտակցաբար է անում" - 1997


5. Aliev's soviet traditin was the most pragmatic and least humanistic for that years. However I obstain going into psychological analyses of its impact on RK/SS psyche. But, I hope that your remark will remind to many LTP supporters on how Armenians in NKAO were surviving during Aliev's soviet rule... And that Armenia still at war


PS
Again, I repeat myself, let's separate leaders from the people and we will see different picture.

nazarian said...

RK was LTP's man in NKR to keep a lid on the dashnaks there. In the anti-dashnakcakan paranoia, HHSh gave rise to the clan. Maybe they thought they were doing the right thing but by suppressing the ARF they gave rise to more serious problems than they solved.

I hope they have learned their lesson

spm said...

Anonymous, I did not accuse RK or SS to be field commanders, but their participation in the war was more direct than LTPs. Actually I never doubted patriotism of these people and important service they rendered to Armenian nation during the liberation of Kharabakh. I think LTP himself praised them in his pre-election speeches. However they occupy now absolutely inadequate place and it harms development of Armenia statehood as much as they helped to established it.

As for psychological analyses, just watch how they rely on Russia as a master and you can easily see see the source of that behavior. I must admit though, that it is wide spread psychological problem for Armenians. It goes back centuries into our history. Even thousands of years, since persians and greek clashed our leaders have been aligning them with one or another, lacking statesmen stance

Anonymous said...

Hi spm

I agree with you, and that's why I base my believe in change on generational change. And I don't believe in revolutions. I worked in the governmental structure and I know many salves happy to work also under LTP rule and harm the nation. its not about king(s) its about system.

Usually, after revolutions, romantics (singers and dancers:) are forced to go away, and pragmatists come to rule and grab. I learned my history textbooks well.

spm said...

Anonymous, agreed about revolution 100%. However evolution sometimes develops into a wrong branch, which has no future. Autocratic, central asian type of structure can not evolve into western democracy, sooner or later it will result in a revolution, which we both want to avoid.

So, my argument in supporting LTP is doing one step back to continue in another direction. Like when you feel that are going in a wrong direction in labyrinths, it is better to return to initial point and go the other direction.