Thursday, August 07, 2008

South Ossetia.

The news outlets report heavy fighting near Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia. This cannot be good news for Armenia. The direct impact of this is destabilization of the region. The indirect result is the effect this is going to have on Azerbaijan and their desire to do the same to Artsakh.

13 comments:

Haik said...

This is serious it is not one of the usual skirmishes, it started as a tank and air attack. BBC reports that 100s of volunteers are arriving from Abkhazia and Russia (probably mainly N Ossets and Cossacks) to assist South Ossets.
Georgia misses a big point that is the right to self-determination. Times have changed.
I am pretty sure Georgia will loose this war.
Hopefully the end will come soon without causing a domino effect.

Haik said...

"
The head of Georgian peacekeepers in South Ossetia said the operation was intended to "restore constitutional order" to the region.
"
This is from BBC I think the word peacekeepers should have been quoted.

Anonymous said...

looks like the west's darling sahakashvili will be compelled to show his true colors.

nazarian said...

While I have no problem with Sahakashvili's desire to get South Ossetia back (any one of us would have the same desire in his shoes), his methods are at best questionable.

The successive Georgian leaders do not consider the reason the Ossetians or the Abkhaz went for independence. They were treated like second class people and their autonomy was revoked by Gamsakhurdia. Sahakashvili has not learned the lesson. He continues to use the same policy of a stick his predecessors did.

If he wants the Abkhaz and the Ossetians to rejoin Georgia, he needs to present a compelling case for them to voluntarily come back. The history has shown that the chances of this are slim to none so the offer has to be a nice one.

Otherwise, Georgia cannot militarily resolve this issue. They will probably end up losing it again.

Haik said...

The only way that I can see is creation of a Federation of Georgia. In the similar format as the USA.
Nobody wants war.

nazarian said...

The US is not truly a federation. The Federal Government has a lot of influence over the states and the states are not really autonomous.

spm said...

its too late for federation. when Russia was weak and poor, Georgia should have offered free and bright future to this nations in European family. Now Russia is back to power and has some cash in addition to tanks and missiles. I do not think Georgia can attract these republics anymore. Now georgians are (were) bombing what they consider their property. When Russians erase Grozny from the surface of Earth you know that the next year they are going to allocate huge sums to rebuilt (money that successfully stolen, but anyways). What Georgians are going to do, even if we imagine they can win this war and capture S.Osetia?? Are they going to re-built it and show osetians how much they care about them? Or they want to create a misery and constant source of guerilla war? Why people do not learn from their own errors?

Ani said...

AP reports that the U.S. is sending in Matthew Bryza to negotiate. That should give everybody here lots of confidence, no?

http://tinyurl.com/6erlmc

nazarian said...

What a mess.

Ani said...

Mess is just beginning: look at this one:

Armed Cossacks pour in to fight Georgians
http://tinyurl.com/6lgbgx

Guess they just "happened" to be in the neighborhood??

spm said...

dear Ani, actually the only accidental thing is that cossacs are really located in neighborhood. Everything else bears signs of a very careful planned KGB operation. It is not incidental that the start of the military confrontation coincided with the opening of the olympic games. Neither the death of russian peacekeepers. However I am far from defending georgian side. The re-shaping of influences continues and Russia using sudden wealth from rising price of oil and weakness of America takes back what has lost after fall of USSR.
It is interesting though how it will affect Armenian side. Apart from temporary disruption of transportation links it may tilt the position of Azerbaidjan towards Russia, if the later demonstrates its ability to wrestle Georgia back. Then instead of attacking Kharabakh militarily they may try to cut a deal with Russia.....

Haik said...

Cossacks always look for and fight for causes like this. They are fighter people and in order to increase their social status in their communities they should go through a fight/war experience.

They are Orthodox Christians and fight on the side of people with similar religion. In this case Ossets are closer to them then Georgians. It has very little to do with KGB or Russian government.

That's the reason that I commented about this above (August 8 2;13AM)

Georgians don't stand a chance even if US sends some commando units.
Saakashvili has no idea what he is doing. He is a stupid nationalist following the orders of his masters in the West.
There was a clip in BBC where Saakashvili was caught admitting (proudly) that Rice calls him very frequently. Now BBC removed that video.

Haik said...

In Ossetia till 2-3 days back Georgians and Ossets lived together. After this war Georgian population ( now being evacuated by Georgian army) will not be able to return to their homes.

As for Azerbaijan regardless of the money they spend on military they will not start a war. Their army is not competent enough to fight a war. On the other hand it is not beneficial for Aliyev family.