Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Roki Tunnel.

There is a bewilderment about the Roki Tunnel in South Ossetia. People I have conversed with do not understand why the Roki Tunnel was allowed to function and allow the Russian troops inside South Ossetia. It seems like a tactical mistake by the Georgian Army.

But not so. I think leaving the tunnel intact was part of the plan. It actually was a key to the Georgian plan to ethnic cleansing of the Ossetians from South Ossetia.

While the whole world was focused on the Olympics, and Putvedev were on vacation (Putin in Beijing, Medvedev on a cruise on Volga), the Georgians attacked Tskhinvali with Czeck made Grad missiles. Grad is a very inaccurate system and it makes more noise than damage. If you want to scare civilians, you attack them with Grad. The plan was that as the civilians came under an attack at night, they would pack up and leave the next day to North Ossetia through the Roki Tunnel while the Georgian tanks rolled through the city and chased them away. Taking care of the ragtag Ossetian volunteers and the few Russian soldiers would not be a big problem then.

On paper, this plan is brilliant. When taking over a territory you do not want the original civilian population there. Killing them amounts to genocide. It's far easier to get away with ethnic cleansing than genocide, the brilliant minds in Georgia and their Western advisors thought.

Had the Georgians plugged the Roki Tunnel, the civilians would not be able to escape and after taking over South Ossetia, they would have an angry civilian population on their hands. The Russians would not be able to come into South Ossetia but the plan was that by the time the Russians realize what was going on, the civilians would be kicked out and the Georgian troops would be near the tunnel.

Well, it didn't work out that way and they probably regret for not closing the tunnel when the Russians woke up (or, more probably, the Russians knew of these plans through their KGB agents).


spm said...

yeah, actually as ugly as it sounds, the correct thing to do would be to fill the tunnel with intense flow of refugees to prevent Russian army entry and seal the tunnel after the last ossetian leaves the "georgian" proper. Then Georgians may have achieved their goal and be listed in world history along with other infamous nations who conducted ethnic cleansing on their territories.
But if you have seen the video of how the Georgian elite forces cover their maniacal leader form the russian air attack, you can understand that their military skills are non-existent and that they are still a bunch of bandits as always used to be.

nazarian said...

Here is what a relative of mine said about him that I completely agree:

Այ բճի տղա, որ դու ըտենց վախում ես մեռնելուց, էդ ինչի՞ ես ուրիշի էրեխեքին ուղարկում մեռնելու:

Haik said...

When I see the photos of poor Georgian soldiers lying dead in the middle of (now) nowhere I wonder what Saakashvili thinks. He is one of those clean-cut career politicians who has all sort of idiotic fantasies and believes in everything what his masters tell him.
Look at the photos and videos the Georgians were in so huge retreat panic they left completely usable military machinery and their dead behind. They didnt defend their positions in retreat. They went to defend Tbilisi/Saakashvili. Russians had no intentions to attack Tbilisi. They were only after the NATO-build military bases.
It was a very-very poorly conducted campaign. I think it was planned/advised by the US who have no idea about the Caucasian people, never fought the Russians, have no idea to the terrain and local conditions.
From the first day of war we all knew that Georgians will loose. Even if Russians didnt move in officially but just encouraged the Cossacks, N Ossetians, Chechens and other paramilitary units Georgians wouldn't stand a chance.

Haik said...

As for the tunnel it could have been sealed for one way traffic only. It is very possible that Georgians tried that but Russians are not idiots. I think Russians had all their regional military stationed around this tunnel.

spm said...

excellent analysis in Financial Times with serious implications for Azerbaijan to....

Haik said...

the page is unavailable.

nazarian said...


this is why they had to abandon their vehicles and equipment. Very graphic photograph:

When there is an aerial attack, you are a big target in whatever armored vehicle you are in. No matter how dumb the Russian bombs are, they had aerial superiority so they could do whatever they wanted in the skies.

Haik said...

Yes true
very gruesome pictures. I will e-mail a couple of them to Saakashvili when his website is up.

Anonymous said...

Saakashvili = chickenshit
I hope Georgians will realize this. sooner better.

Bruce Tasker said...

Saakashvili got his billion dollar thank you from Dick Cheney for his part in this - including as you quite rightly observe, leaving the tunnel open.