Sunday, October 19, 2008

Searching for a new model.

The opposition announced on Friday that they will be temporarily be stopping the public means of fight - i.e. no large scale demonstrations, marches, etc. The reason given was that they do not want to weaken the current standing of Armenia as the country enters a decisive period for the resolution of the Karabakh issue.

As far as I understand, an illegitimate government like the current one in Armenia, is not in a very strong position to argue Armenia's case effectively. Not only they lack legitimacy, they are also widely seen as a rogue force who does not stop at suppressing free speech, imprisoning people who say things they do not like or even killing them en masse. So, at the table such a party would be very disadvantaged.

I don't know if there was publicly visible civil unrest it would make their position more unfavorable. But since we are talking about the future of Armenia, it's probably not worth risking it.

But what is more important, I think, is the searching of a new model for removing the illegitimate executive and legislative branches of the government and restoring law and order in the country. As Levon Ter-Petrosian mentioned shortly after the March 1 massacre, the political struggle between the opposition and the government was like playing chess with a boxer in a boxing ring. No matter how brilliant your move on the board is, a swift punch on your face will knock you down.

So the new model has to be a method that is on par with a boxing match. I don't know what it might include but hopefully it will be something to disable the boxer rather than have a boxing fight. Given Levon Ter-Petrosian's pledge to remain within the laws and his commitment to the long term interests of the Armenian nation, it will probably be something that disqualifies the boxer. How can it be done, I don't know.

I just hope that the political prisoners are released soon and the Diasporans who fought for Armenia during the war are not expelled from the country.

UPDATE: The full text of the speech in Armenian is available on The official website of the Levon for President campaign has the speech in English.


spm said...

its over. Time to find/rise a new candidate who can take on SS in 4 years.

I hope it was some sort of deal between LTP and SS and imprisoned people will be set free.

Anonymous said...

"""Time to find/rise a new candidate who can take on SS in 4 years."""

Again wrong task. We don't need someone to replace another one. We need complete/gradual change of political culture. I myself don't want having clan system of LTP either clientilism of SS.

spm said...

sorry anon.... how you completely/gradually change political culture without finding a replacement for SS. Do you think that we should let him pickup is successor?

Anonymous said...

Hi spm

if you change rules old type of leadership changes itself [theory, in practice McCain still can win :)]

HOwever, in my calculation we need some 6-7 years for full generational change, so its hard to beleive that 4 years is enough to have normal political life in Armenia. Fast change [of generation in politics] may backfire. Saakishvili is a good case study.

My personal approach is. SS has clientelle polit. culture, you are bought or not. So the minimum is 'new generation should not sell itself'.

Ani said...

Well, after digesting this, I think the “time-out” is a good move. Aside from the stated reasons, the EU meeting in January is going to be looking at what’s happened with its requests. Basically, the opposition has met all of the EU’s demands. By temporarily withdrawing, the opposition takes away all the Sargsyan administration’s excuses for not implementing the necessary changes and restoring basic freedoms and rule of law, for not properly investigating the March 1 events, for not releasing the political prisoners, etc. etc. Time for Sargsyan/Sargsyan to show their true colors--today's vote in the RA parliament was NOT a good start.

And as far as the U.S. goes, why bother with the Bush administration any more? It’s obvious that an Obama administration is going to take a very fresh look at everything, with a special eye toward restoring America’s stature as a country that values human rights. I was especially encouraged by the exchange between Obama and McCain regarding the Colombia free trade agreement. McCain attacked Obama for not supporting the agreement, since Colombia has lately been cooperating with the U.S. on anti-drug initiatives. Obama replied:

"The history in Colombia right now is that labor leaders have been targeted for assassination on a fairly consistent basis and there have not been prosecutions. And what I have said, because the free trade -- the trade agreement itself does have labor and environmental protections, but we have to stand for human rights and we have to make sure that violence isn't being perpetrated against workers who are just trying to organize for their rights, which is why, for example, I supported the Peruvian Free Trade Agreement which was a well-structured agreement. But I think that the important point is we've got to have a president who understands the benefits of free trade but also is going to enforce unfair trade agreements and is going to stand up to other countries."

To paraphrase, in an Obama administation "pirates need not apply". Of course it won't be perfect, but if you're not a pirate yourself (like Bush and Cheney are), your sympathy toward other pirates is minimal.

gev said...

the fraud ter-petroleum did his damage and now crawls back under a rock.

another episode in the life of a man who walked into a situation where armenians entertained hope of improvement, and leaves it having done everything possible to kill hope.

in american terms:
ltp = the anti-obama