Some thoughts on the Kars-Akhalkalak-Baku railway.
So far the three countries initiating the Kars-Akhalkalak-Baku railway, Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, have ignored the objections of Armenia, and the US. They keep pushing the project through. So far their main publicly announced hurdle has been raising the funds for the construction. The amount is small, only US$ 800 million, so the reason for these delays is political. But since it is going ahead, it means that the pressure on them has been inadequate.
A week or so ago the German ambassador in Azerbaijan did not rule out European participation in the project. And then an Armenian Foreign Ministry staffer offered Georgia to let Armenia to become a participant. I don't see a reason for such an undignified stance - clearly, the purpose of this railway is to circumvent Armenia.
The Armenian government has to start employing a stick instead of asking third parties to exert pressure. Armenia has to insist that such communication routes achieve only one thing: they will increase the tension in the region and eventually result in another war. Armenia definitely does not want to start a war with Azerbaijan or Georgia over a railway. But these two countries have to understand that they will not gain anything positive as a result of this project. The movers and shakers of this world should not want another escalation. There are already problems in Southern Caucasus as it is. Georgia certainly would not want to have Akhalkalak become another Abkhasia. Azerbaijan should not be flamboyant either - God forbid something happens to their oil pipeline.
I do not know if the Armenian government has communicated this message to the appropriate parties but maybe a war games in Lori is in order.
3 comments:
if it continues like this Akhalkalak will become another Abkhazia and at that time it will be justifiable as international laws are against the isolation of landlocked countries. Even now if Armenia attacks the Baku-Jeyhan oil pipeline it will be justifiable as we are in war with Azerbaijan and a good portion of oil moey is spent on military.
It is now interesting to know that what are the Armenian foreign policy priorities. If it is a priority to merge Akhalkalak to Armenia than no better excuse could be needed. By contolling Akhalkalak we will control both the oil pipeline and the upcoming railway. I think this is a very possible scenario that our neighbours should warry about. The EU & US will not spend a penny on this railway as they are not stupid.Nobody wants to mess with Russians who are experts in finding excuses. They are quiet now as they like the path of such developments.
The problem is that it is us who will be doing the fighting and losing young lives. Yes, some territories may be gained but these are already Armenian populated areas. No new land can be gained unless a corridor to the sea is opened which is a highly unlikely scenario.
IT WILL BE JUSTIFIBLE TO WIPE OUT YOU WITH HELP OF TURKEY AS A PART ON WAR WITH TERRORISM
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