I've been off the grid for about a week and didn't have time/chance to follow the latest events surrounding the Turkish-Armenian relations. Yesterday I heard on NPR that the FM-s of both the countries have signed the rapprochement deal that will now need to be ratified by their respective parliaments. The hope expressed by a guy heading a think-tank in Washington about Turkey was that the normalizing relations would ease the insecurities of the Armenians for the eventual resolution of the NKR issue.
So, the insistence of the opposition in Armenia that the current process endangers NKR are valid. I think at some point even the pro-government people like the ARF Dashnaktsutyun mumbled the same thing.
My position remains the same throughout. It is good policy to try to have normal relations with neighbors as long as the process does not threaten Armenia. This latest development is done by the US. Obama had promised to recognize the Genocide which, if done in the current situation, would be damaging to the US interests. So the solution for him was try to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations so that these interests are not harmed.
The problem is that the US and Armenian interests are not entirely compatible. It wouldn't be a big deal if Armenia had a normal government and had the support of its citizens and the Diaspora. Unfortunately, the current president is illegitimate and as such does not have the backing of his people. That complicates the Armenian position and the country comes to the negotiating table being very weak.
And we have seen time and time again, when the Armenian position is weak, we end up losing spectacularly. Remember the paper ladle that Khrimian Hayrik talked about.
Before we lose much of what was gained in the early 90-s and retained after wards, i is important that the three branches of government regain legitimacy - new parliament, new president and reformed and independent judiciary (speaking of the judiciary, it's important to note that the head of the Constitutional Court of Armenia was breaking the Constitution while he was engaged in a political activity accompanying SS on his ill-conceived 'pan-Armenian' tour).
So, the insistence of the opposition in Armenia that the current process endangers NKR are valid. I think at some point even the pro-government people like the ARF Dashnaktsutyun mumbled the same thing.
My position remains the same throughout. It is good policy to try to have normal relations with neighbors as long as the process does not threaten Armenia. This latest development is done by the US. Obama had promised to recognize the Genocide which, if done in the current situation, would be damaging to the US interests. So the solution for him was try to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations so that these interests are not harmed.
The problem is that the US and Armenian interests are not entirely compatible. It wouldn't be a big deal if Armenia had a normal government and had the support of its citizens and the Diaspora. Unfortunately, the current president is illegitimate and as such does not have the backing of his people. That complicates the Armenian position and the country comes to the negotiating table being very weak.
And we have seen time and time again, when the Armenian position is weak, we end up losing spectacularly. Remember the paper ladle that Khrimian Hayrik talked about.
Before we lose much of what was gained in the early 90-s and retained after wards, i is important that the three branches of government regain legitimacy - new parliament, new president and reformed and independent judiciary (speaking of the judiciary, it's important to note that the head of the Constitutional Court of Armenia was breaking the Constitution while he was engaged in a political activity accompanying SS on his ill-conceived 'pan-Armenian' tour).
If you want to catch up I pulled a lot of stories together yesterday on my Twitter feed @goldentent. Especially noteworthy was this BBC behind-the-scenes report--draw your own conclusions: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8301191.stm
ReplyDeleteIt's surprising the the closing statements were not reviewed in the days past and had to be objected at the last minute. One thing is clear, though. There has been a lot of arm-twisting and banging of heads by the US administration.
ReplyDelete@goldentent: Hootenkack: “To talk someone into doing what he doesn’t want to do” -- Thanks for the vocabulary words, Bill Safire! http://bit.ly/GJPwV
ReplyDeleteHillary Clinton is a champion hootenkacker--probably Bill would agree...
Not only arm-twisting, hijecking as well :)
ReplyDelete" I went to ask Minister Nalbandian to drive with me to the university, which he did."- H Clinton
Nalbandian was behaving like a small kid who just filled in his pampers.