I have been thinking for some time about the pending rapprochement agreement between Armenia and Turkey. I like the idea of normalized relations and open borders from a practical standpoint - it will facilitate access to the Mediterranean and Europe in general. Now that things have calmed down in the Balkans, Paris would be 5-6 day's drive away from Yerevan. So, this is the benefit that Armenia would obtain.
The tricky part is the historical commission about Metz Yeghern. There are fears that this will be a tool to deny that the genocide ever took place. I think this is valid concern. I liken it to a civil court case where one side has suffered and is demanding damages but has no resources to hire good lawyers. The wrongdoer has much more resources and can hire star lawyers. Even though the plaintiff is right, there is still no guarantee they will win. Armenia not only lacks the resources that Turkey has, she also comes to the table with discredited and illegitimate leadership.
SS is like an audience member in a circus standing on long pole with lions roaming underneath. He and his team are mental midgets and do not have much support among the citizens of Armenia or in the Diaspora.
Another complication is that the efforts to have the US recognize Metz Yeghern will be put on the back burner. It was an inconvenient matter and now there is an excuse that the historical commission is taking care of it.
But then there is the chance that the commission will reveal facts that Metz Yeghern indeed took place. There is a precedent for this. A few years ago the non-governmental TARC (Turkish Armenian Reconciliation Committee) ruled that the genocide had taken place. At the time of TARC's existence, there was a lot of resistance in Armenia and Turkey but after that it became possible for the Turks to actually discuss the matter in their press and made it possible for their elite to question the policy of the Turkish government.
The last concern among the Armenians is that the Turks will invade Armenia, all the Armenian women will move to Turkey and become prostitutes, the Armenians will be forced to buy Turkish products and such fears. Frankly, I think these are ridiculous.
The tricky part is the historical commission about Metz Yeghern. There are fears that this will be a tool to deny that the genocide ever took place. I think this is valid concern. I liken it to a civil court case where one side has suffered and is demanding damages but has no resources to hire good lawyers. The wrongdoer has much more resources and can hire star lawyers. Even though the plaintiff is right, there is still no guarantee they will win. Armenia not only lacks the resources that Turkey has, she also comes to the table with discredited and illegitimate leadership.
SS is like an audience member in a circus standing on long pole with lions roaming underneath. He and his team are mental midgets and do not have much support among the citizens of Armenia or in the Diaspora.
Another complication is that the efforts to have the US recognize Metz Yeghern will be put on the back burner. It was an inconvenient matter and now there is an excuse that the historical commission is taking care of it.
But then there is the chance that the commission will reveal facts that Metz Yeghern indeed took place. There is a precedent for this. A few years ago the non-governmental TARC (Turkish Armenian Reconciliation Committee) ruled that the genocide had taken place. At the time of TARC's existence, there was a lot of resistance in Armenia and Turkey but after that it became possible for the Turks to actually discuss the matter in their press and made it possible for their elite to question the policy of the Turkish government.
The last concern among the Armenians is that the Turks will invade Armenia, all the Armenian women will move to Turkey and become prostitutes, the Armenians will be forced to buy Turkish products and such fears. Frankly, I think these are ridiculous.
You forgot the most important points:
ReplyDelete1. The linkage of establishing Turkey-Armenia Relations/Opening the border with that of reaching a pro-Azerbaijani resolution to the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict.
2. The repercussions of such a resolution in Karabakh, for both the people of Nagorno Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia.
3. Turkey's growing strength in the region, and using Armenia & Karabakh as tickets into the EU by "solving" such crucial issues in the South Caucasus.
4. The criminal element pouring into Armenia, and the criminal element in Armenia strengthening through new resources from Turkey.
Public Statement by former Foreign Minister (1998-2008) Vartan Oskanian this month (September):
http://www.civilitasfoundation.org/cf/spotlight/videos/230-oskanian-rejects-armenia-turkey-protocols.html
I think points 1 and 3 are valid concerns. Point 2 is the same as these two points so can be ignored.
ReplyDeletePoint 4 sounds like fear mongering. The criminal element in Armenia is strong and they will remain strong as they control all the three branches of the government.